27 Jun
2016
Brexit, Brexit, Brexit – TenCount 6.27.16
- Brexit, Brexit, Brexit. Economic news will continue to be dominated this week by discussion of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union. As currency and other financial markets try to stabilize themselves Monday, the European Central Bank begins a three-day Forum on Central Banking, with the E.C.B. President Mario Draghi, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney headlining in Portugal.
- Britain’s exit leaves Germany as the unquestioned economic power in the E.U.; the question now is how it will wield that power. A hint might come Monday in Berlin, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel hosts French President Francois Hollande and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, as well as E.U. President Donald Tusk. Then on Tuesday, leaders of all the E.U. countries gather in Brussels for a two-day European Council to discuss the U.K.’s decamping.
- Bankers also will be meeting on Monday morning in Washington, to talk about the global economy and – you guessed it – Brexit. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew and World Bank Group Chief Operating Officer Mulyani Indrawati will speak at the Bretton Woods Committee annual meeting.
- Not to be outdone, the leaders of the “Three Amigos” North American countries – President Obama, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexico President Enrique Pena Nieto – will meet Wednesday in Ottawa to discuss trade and, oh, any recent news that might affect international trade, if they can think of any.
- An outgrowth of the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests for banks are complete and on Wednesday the Fed will announce the results of the second part of the tests, the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review. The upshot will be whether any of the big banks are in good-enough shape that the Fed will allow them to increase dividends and share repurchases.
- Remember Puerto Rico? When last we visited in May, the country was having trouble coming up with some $400 million in interest payments. That, if you recall, was a prelude to what will happen on Friday, when the island commonwealth faces default on $2 billion in bond payments. Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla has already said that government operations cannot be cut enough to free up the cash to pay creditors.
- The House of Representatives is out for two weeks, but the Senate will be plugging away this week, with terrorism at the top of its list. The Foreign Relations Committee will conduct a hearing Tuesday examining global efforts to defeat Isis, while a Judiciary subcommittee chaired by Senator Ted Cruz will take a look at “the consequences of agency efforts to deemphasize radical Islam in combatting terrorism.”
- It’s not terrorism, but it is already striking fear in the hearts of millions, with 820 confirmed cases in the continental U.S.: the Zika virus. On Wednesday the Senate Homeland Security Committee will convene “to examine preparing for and protecting the nation from Zika.”
- Rule 41 of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure is changing! If that isn’t enough to get you interested, consider that the change will significantly expand the use of government hacking in FBI investigations – including allowing hacking without due process. The Open Technology Institute hosts a discussion about the proposed change Thursday.
- July means distraction, and there are plenty this week. Wimbledon begins its fortnight of play Monday; the World Golf Championships tee off Thursday; fan voting concludes for the All-Star game on Thursday; and on Saturday, the Tour de France rolls off the starting line. Friday, of course, is Canada Day. Enjoy!